Application of Catastrophe Progression Method in Assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Jilin Province

Abstract

We modeled the water resources carrying capacity with a catastrophe progression method based on catastrophe theory while considering the supply and demand for water resources, the economy, the ecological environment and society. Then, we applied the model to study the water resources carrying capacity of Jilin Province from 2009 to 2015. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Jilin Province is at the "middle" level. A certain development and utilization potential is present, but it must be strictly controlled and moderately developed. The amount of water resources in Jilin Province varies greatly by year and must be adjusted via water conservation facilities and long-term management policies. The catastrophe progression method can effectively avoid the effects of subjective weight on the results; the result is clear, and it can streamline the index system. This approach provides a new method for the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity.