Monte Carlo Simulation of Infectious Disease Spreading

Abstract

Infectious diseases might cause death and panic in a certain population. An infected member can transmit the disease to his neighbors according the probabilities of spreading. A model was built to simulate the disease spreading process. Four status from dead to healthy are set for a member. The help of healthy neighbors was considered to double the probability of healing. Monte Carlo simulation results showed that the disease with high contagiousness and low mortality could be more dangerous than a deadly disease with low contagiousness. Introduction