Efficient Computation and Uncertainty Analysis of Underwater Acoustic Propagation based on Kriging Surrogate Model

Abstract

In this paper, a Kriging surrogate model is introduced to simplify the computation of underwater acoustic propagation and quantify the related uncertainty. By using a Kriging model to replace the single frequency and multi-frequency FOR3D acoustic model, the computational speed is increased by dozens of times while ensuring that the maximum mean square error is confined within 5%. In this way, the balance between efficiency and accuracy of the underwater acoustic propagation is achieved. On the basis of this Kriging surrogate model, the Monte Carlo simulation is also used to analyze the uncertainty of acoustic propagation loss, in terms of the posterior probability density distribution. Finally, the confidence intervals corresponding to different confidence levels are calculated in order to quantify the uncertainty of transmission loss.